Políticas macroprudenciales y crecimiento económico en economías selectas de Latinoamérica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35305/s.v18i1.303Resumen
El objetivo de este artículo es contribuir al debate sobre el impacto del activismo en las políticas macroprudenciales en el crecimiento económico de un grupo de países en América Latina durante el periodo 1990-2023. Mediante la estimación de un modelo de datos de panel, la investigación analiza esta relación e incorpora una variable de interacción que vincula la regulación con el grado de apertura de la cuenta de capital, permitiendo capturar posibles procesos de arbitraje regulatorio. Los hallazgos principales revelan que la efectividad de estas políticas y su impacto positivo en el crecimiento económico dependen de una apertura significativa de la cuenta de capital. Por el contrario, el estudio demuestra que, si se omite dicho efecto de interacción, el activismo macroprudencial presenta un impacto negativo y estadísticamente significativo en todas las variantes estimadasCitas
Adrian, T., Boyarchenko, N. y Giannone, D. (2019). Vulnerable growth. American Economic Review, 109(4), 1263–1289. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161923
Aikman, D., Bridges, J., Hacıoğlu Hoke, S., O’Neill, C. y Raja, A. (2021). Credit, capital and crises: A GDP-at-risk approach (CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15864).
Aizenman, J., Chinn, M. D. y Ito, H. (2020). Financial spillovers and macroprudential policies. Open Economies Review, 31(3), 529–563. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-020-09580-9
Alam, Z., Alter, A., Eiseman, J., Gelos, R., Kang, H., Narita, M., Nier, E.y Wang, N. (2019). Digging deeper: Evidence on the effects of macroprudential policies from a new database (IMF Working Paper No. 19/66). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302708.001
Andries, A. M.y Melnic, F. (2019). Macroprudential policies and economic growth. Review of Economic and Business Studies, 12(1), 95–112. https://doi.org/10.1515/rebs-2019-0084
Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Unbalanced panel data models. In Econometric analysis of panel data (pp. 229–257). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5_9
Beck, T., Silva-Buston, C. y Wagner, W. (2024). Supervisory cooperation and regulatory arbitrage. Review of Finance, 29(2), 381–413. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfae041
Belkhir, M., Ben Naceur, S., Candelon, B. y Wijnandts, J.-C. (2020). Macroprudential policies, economic growth, and banking crises. IMF Working Paper No. 20/11. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513536989.001
Biljanovska, N., Chen, S., Gelos, R., Igan, D. y Valencia, F. (2023). Macroprudential policy effects: Evidence and open questions. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400226304.087
Bruno, G. S. F. (2005). Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals. The Stata Journal, 5(4), 473–500. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0500500401
Boar, C., Gambacorta, L., Lombardo, G. y Pereira da Silva, L. A. (2017). What are the effects of macroprudential policies on macroeconomic performance? BIS Quarterly Review, 71–88. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709g.htm
Cerutti, E., Claessens, S. y Laeven, L. (2017). The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence. Journal of Financial Stability, 28, 203–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.10.004
Chakraborty, K. (2025). Quality of education and economic growth. Atlantic Economic Journal, 53(3), 125–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-025-09826-2
Chinn, M. D. y Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.010
Duprey, T. y Ueberfeldt, A. (2020). Managing GDP tail risk (Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No. 2020-3). https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2020-3
Galán, J. E. (2025). Macroprudential policy and the tail risk of credit growth (Documentos de Trabajo). Banco de España. https://doi.org/10.53479/38957
Gregori, W. D. y Ramos, Â. (2024). Time-varying effects of monetary and macroprudential policies: Does high inflation matter? (Working Paper No. 1/2024). Banco de Portugal.
Hodula, M. y Ngo, N. A. (2022). Finance, growth and (macro)prudential policy: Hodula, M. y Ngo, N. A. (2022). Finance, growth and (macro)prudential policy: European evidence. Empirica, 49(2), 537–571. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-022-09537-w
Kim, S. y Mehrotra, A. N. (2017). Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies: Evidence from inflation targeting economies in the Asia-Pacific region and potential implications for China. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2929407
Noss, J. y Toffano, P. (2016). Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing. Journal of Banking & Finance, 62, 15–27.
Ma, C. (2020). Financial stability, growth and macroprudential policy. Journal of International Economics, 122, 103259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103259
Madeira, C. (2022). The evolution of macroprudential policy use in Chile, Latin America and the OECD. Journal of Banking Regulation, 24(3), 357–380. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41261-022-00202-7
Marconi, G. (2018). Education as a long-term investment: The decisive role of age in the education-growth relationship. Kyklos, 71(1), 132–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12165
Obeid, R. (2024). The side effects of macroprudential policies on economic performance in the Arab region. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 13(2), 89–107. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2024-0014
Okeke, J. U. y Okeke, E. N. (2018). Least squares dummy variable in determination of dynamic panel model parameters. European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, 1(6), 77–81. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejeng.2016.1.6.197
Poghosyan, T. (2019). How effective is macroprudential policy? Evidence from lending restriction measures in EU countries (IMF Working Paper No. 19/45). International Monetary Fund.
Rabanal, C. (2022). Ciclos financieros y económicos en América Latina. Ola Financiera, 15(43), 30. https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.18701442e.2022.43.83496
Richter, B., Schularick, M. y Shim, I. (2019). The costs of macroprudential policy. Journal of International Economics, 118, 263–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.11.011
Sánchez, A. C. y Röhn, O. (2016). How do policies influence GDP tail risks? (OECD Economics Department Working Papers). OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jln0428l1wl-en
Seprillina, L., Sarmidi, T. y Azam, A. H. M. (2025). Macroprudential policy, income inequality, and economic growth: A systematic literature review. Multidisciplinary Reviews, 8(8), 2025255. https://doi.org/10.31893/multirev.2025255
Škrinjarić, T. (2025). Impact of macroprudential policy on economic growth: A survey on growth-at-risk approach. Journal of Economic Surveys. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.70052
Stolbov, M. y Shchepeleva, M. (2022). The interaction among financial development, macroprudential policy and economic growth. In The Routledge handbook of comparative economic systems (pp. 664–675). https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003144366-41
Suarez, J. (2022). Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design. Journal of Financial Stability, 60, 101008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101008
You, Y., Hu, X. y Guo, H. (2023). Macroprudential policy, economic crises and economic growth. Digital Economy and Sustainable Development, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44265-023-00014-1
Zohair, A., Alter, A., Eiseman, J., Gelos, G., Narita, M., Nier, E. y Wang, N. (2019). Digging deeper: Evidence on the effects of macroprudential policies from a new database (IMF Working Paper No. 19/66).
